Two Dems better than one Republican

Tomorrow morning Steve Pestka joins Trevor Thomas in the race for the Third Congressional.

Pestka brings a solid record as a moderate, pro-life Democrat, a background that has attracted attacks by some, as well as spurred doubts by progressives in the community. To date, none have gone public with their misgivings.

Thomas has a local connection (Wyoming native, GVSU graduate) and comes off of a big win for the overturning of Dont Ask Don’t Tell. This work has brought him to national attention, at least in the LGBT communities. And Thomas is also young, 28.

Both are driven by a combination of the redrawn lines of the Third, and by the staunchly conservative stands taken by the incumbent, Justin Amash. Add to this that the prospect that 2012 may in fact look like 2008 (so Ruy Teixiera), the candidacy becomes hot property. In 2008, the new district basically broke even in its vote for Obama (177,195 McCain, 180,021 Obama).

If the district looks like a possible win, how are the two Dems ready for the challenge?

Filed under: Elections, National, 3rd Congressional, Barry County, Calhoun County, Justin Amash, Kent County, LGBT, Republicans, Ron Paul, Steve Pestka, Trevor Thomas

Uphill Climb? or Children’s Crusade?

Eclectablog and DownWithTyranny are looking with excitement at the possible entry of Trevor Thomas into the race for the Third Congressional. The reasoning is two-fold, first that Justin Amash is weak relative to the Republican Party, he’s an outsider, even an extremist. All true. Second that Thomas would bring a strong progressive resume to the race. Here’s how DWT describes him:

Trevor grew up in the district; his parents worked 30 years each on factory lines, including General Motors and Delphi plants.

Trevor, who spent five years as a producer and reporter at WOOD-TV and WGVU-TV in Grand Rapids, went on to work for Governor Jennifer Granholm and later helped lead the national effort to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”  And he’s done his legwork, meeting with local electeds in the district since November and charting a well-thought out, early grassroots plan to win.

There’s a lot in Trevor to like, but he faces something of an uphill climb. Progressives have run in MI-3 before (Lynnes, 2002; Sanchez, 2008), none gained much traction, in part because of a strong incumbent, Vern Ehlers. Because the seat seemed so safe, it was often the territory for small, under-funded campaigns. Only with the Obama victory did it look as if the right candidate might actually take it; hence the well funded but unsuccessful campaign of Pat Miles Jr.

A progressive like Trevor faces two barriers. Financially, the race for MI-3 has become more expensive with the addition of Calhoun county (Battle Creek), forcing campaigns to wage a two-media market war. Secondly, in partisan races outside Grand Rapids, the region tends to be socially conservative, D or R,a function of underlying Catholic (principally Polish) and conservative Protestant (Dutch) communities. Winning coalitions must tap both these communities to win. Organizing the ground game will take work and plenty of allies, this is not something done by the progressives alone.

When we turn to the City proper, things look brighter, notably the creation of a safe (and progressive) state house seat (MI-75), but this will not be vacant until 2016. Our City Commission races also have glimmers of progressive leadership, particularly in the Second Ward. Likewise, the School Board has a strong progressive cast to it, as well, many having enjoyed the support of Progressive Women’s Alliance(PWA) — I think that this would be the likely pool for candidates to actually emerge.

Add to all this, we may note the changing media market itself. On one hand, the shift to social media may well benefit a young campaign with lots of smarts. Sadly for challengers, that’s the field pioneered by Rep. Amash. Any challenger will need to be at least as adept as he has shown himself to be. Second, the demise of print product in the region takes away some of the easier advertising and publicity options (and so pushes for the use of broadcast media). This too, will take finesse but also lots of cash.

In short,  it will be the presence of significant financing and a clear strategy that will determine whether Thomas brings a challenge, or one more children’s crusade.

 

Filed under: Elections, Politics, 3rd Congressional, Calhoun County, Catholic, Christian Reformed Church, Henry Sanchez, Justin Amash, MI-75, Pat MIles Jr., PWA, Trevor Thomas, Vern Ehlers

Furniture City, meet Cereal City

The state Republican Party released their planned congressional redistricting map. While the contortions in the northern burbs of Detroit make this another piece of court bait, the map for the local 3rd Congressional is certainly interesting, linking as it does Calhoun County and Battle Creek with the folks of the Furniture City.

Perhaps the most intriguing part is how the GOP gives up Battle Creek — a definite Democratic stronghold. The explanation no doubt lies in an attempt to save Rep. Tim Walberg (CD – 7). For those in Kent County this looks to be something of a fair trade. The new 3rd Congressional gets a Democratic stronghold, but needs to surrender (parts of?) Wyoming. By most lights that would be a fair trade. If the GOP plan does anything it formally creates a more competitive seat.

“Formally” is the operative word here. The configuration raises two important campaign challenges, particularly for any Democratic candidate. This is no longer a seat that can be run from the City; it’s no longer “local.” The inclusion of Battle Creek will ask campaigns to divide their time between the two regions — especially Democrats who will need a strong turnout in Calhoun to have any chance of winning, at all. The addition of a second media market also raises the funding bar for any serious campaign.

Likely the most interesting item — and the reason that the GOP likes this configuration (well, apart from saving Walberg) — is how it skews old. Where approximately 25 percent of Kent County is over 62, in Calhoun County the number is over 33 percent, one third. These are generally  more conservative voters, although in the Ryan era and the proposed revision of Medicare this older make-up opens a significant vulnerability to the sitting congressman in the 3rd, Rep. Justin Amash.

Filed under: Elections, 3rd Congressional, 7th Congressional, Calhoun County, Justin Amash, Kent County, Redistricting, Republican Party, Tim Walberg, Wyoming