The price of the Switch

That seems to be the sense of the Schmidt text messages released this past week. Two items stand out as worthy of comment:

First there was the Lisa Posthumus Lyons urging Roy to get extra protection on the day of his switch. A touching, no doubt heart-felt comment, looking out for his safety. But tucked into that was a set of assumptions, not least was that people would be that upset at Roy. And why should that  be, but for the manner not the fact of his switch. Lyons and the party establishment were fundamentally on the side of gamesmanship of the switch — the same gamesmanship that drove Bing Goei crazy (and why, one should note, a Goei write-in is not likely to get much support from the GOP establishment). Were Lyons a better friend, she would have told Roy to switch earlier, not later.

A second pillow secret that comes up is that of the motive: Roy’s desire to run against Mayor Heartwell. The underlying strategy seems to be that by switching, Schmidt ingratiates himself to the monied powers in Ada, Cascade and Caledonia. Thus we end up with the sad spectacle of a man who had built a long-standing relationship with the unions in the City, particularly or fire and police, now seeking support from those interests who are actually aligned against those same unions. The fundamental position that Schmidt had relative to the Mayor was to stand up for the police and fire against proposed cutbacks from City Hall. Instead, by making the implicit play to the anti-union crowd, he basically took the side of City Hall, invalidating his basic working stiff creds.

Hardly the stuff for success.

In terms of city politics, the switch makes even less sense for the mayor’s race. The nature of the east-west split in the City is that politics of the SE side, shaped by Dutch Calvinism, wants to focus on principles. It’s not accident that all the challengers to Schmidt (Brinks, Goei, Allard) come from these neighborhoods.

 

Filed under: Republican Folly, Bing Goei, George Heartwell, Keith Allard, Lisa Posthumus Lyons, Roy Schmidt, Winnie Brinks

Goei, Goei, gone?

An interesting phone survey landed yesterday, asking about the 76th: Democrat-turned-Republican? Winnie? Allard? Write in for Bing Goei?

Bing Goei? From comments at MLive, it sounds as if he has made noises about running as a write-in alternative.While no news announcement has been made, the phone poll certainly suggests that some one is considering his (re)entry as possible and perhaps even probable. Did Bing get enough votes to jump in? Time will tell.

But then again, time’s fleeting. The window to enter, to run a real write-in campaign is rather narrow. The longer Goei postpones his decision, the harder it will be to gain any traction other than that of the base. And conservative as the 76th is drawn, the base is not big enough to win.

Still one can understand the temptation, what with the prospect of charges against our Democrat-turned-Republican (and now friend of the Hiring Class), there does seem to be some room over on the conservative side for a write-in. Or there would be were it not for Keith Allard. Allard has shown that he has a fair amount of political guts, first showing up as an “appointee of Governor Granholm” in the initial WZZM story, and even into the primary not citing any of his pro-life creds, even if one might infer it from his graduation from Catholic Central. In the last weeks, his stand has turned progressively to the right, running Facebook ads that proclaim him as a fiscal conservative and pro-life.

So, for the record, Bing has a job cut out for him. Allard seizes the right leaving Bing with the establishment GOP. Split vote. As infuriating as the election rigging shenanigans are, there does not seem to be any room for a moderate Republican.

Filed under: Elections, Bing Goei, Keith Allard, MI-76, Roy Schmidt

Where is Peter Bratt when you need him?

Political consultant and former resident, Peter Bratt understood the importance of data — his models became part of the Democratic redistricting efforts in 2011. It now appears that Grand Rapids and its Clerk, Lauri Parks could have used his help.

The task was fairly simple: following instructions from the Secretary of State, Grand Rapids was to change the numbering of its precincts from ward specific to a sequential pattern (so no more of having three precinct 24s, say).

This would be a minor thing, or should be. The result has been problematic, however, and may require an additional fix.

In her revamp, Parks redrew boundaries of several precincts. Most entailed better aligning Ward 1, Precinct 13 (the near west side neighborhood along the river from Bridge to Leonard), a more significant change took place in the far northwest where three precincts (23, 24 and 31) were combined into two, 23 and 21, basically by dividing up 24. Now this may seem arcane, but for those who track voter behavior, the merge and split means that data will now have to be consolidated into one chunk, a combined 23 and 21. This is a small loss of granular data.

The larger problem, however comes with the naming of the precincts themselves. All online archive records at Election Magic or at the Secretary of State,  present the data in a fixed order (ward 1 beginning with precinct 1, ward 2, etc), this generally has allowed for tracking from year to year. The new numbering system sought to give new names that resemble the old ones (e.g. in Ward 3, pct 5 becomes 55, pct 18, 68; pct 21, 71). The difficulty is that such a numbering substantially breaks down the earlier order of precincts, that order used all other analyses.

Oh, what is a poor boy to do?

For starters, get a key. The excel sheet gives the new number codes for the old precinct numbers. by using them next to the old precinct lists, one can sort them so archive data sets match current order or precincts. Yes, that’s confusing. It would be so much easier for data analysis had Ms Parks simply kept the order, and changed the number.

Practically, what this all means is that the amateur and limited fund campaigns will need to take extra time in building their data sets. And one thing we know for sure: Peter Bratt would not approve that.

 

 

 

Filed under: Elections, Grand Rapids, Lauri Parks, Peter Bratt

On Leaving the Frying Pan

If Roy Schmidt’s inept change of parties demonstrated anything, it was just how non-Machiavellian he actually is. By his own admission he’s  a regular guy who  very much wants to have voters remember him as he was, a conservative but not ideological, pragmatic politician. Sure he switched, but as he reminded voters, “he’s still the same old Roy.”

While in my party switch I made a poor political decision, it is becoming clear the people of Grand Rapids want to move on, and so do I. The people of Grand Rapids can expect to see me at their front door over the next few months to talk about the issues that are important to us here in this City: Jobs, protecting hardworking taxpayers, education and public safety.

Any hope of moving on, however, was crushed Friday, when Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate.

At a tactical level, appeals to hardworking taxpayers, education and public safety are savaged by a Ryan-Romney budget that slashes the federal expenditures. Of course, Schmidt can move farther to the right and embrace the anti-poor budget with its  slashing of EITC and sharp reductions in Medicaid. And that’s the start of the impact of the Ryan proposal. As Ryan Lizza shows in his Ryan profile in The New Yorker, the federal programs that could build up a city or region — the sort that Schmidt has always championed — these are antithetical to the views of Ryan and his patron.

But the issues are more than tactical. The selection of Ryan functions as a definitional event. The positions that Romney has taken are now explicitly those of the GOP as a whole. They are branded. The only way out for centrists and moderate conservatives is a sort of disavowal (at risk of picking up a RINO label), but of couse, with the media storm, such a disavowal won’t work. At this point, one can even imagine Bing Goei giving thanks that he doesn’t have to face this challenge.

And it’s not just Schmidt. His predicament is one that Republicans of all stripes must face. While they may be known personally as men and women of a certain sensibility, the lurch to the Right by the radical faction now obligates them to defend positions that fly in face of their own commitment. Some, naturally, can eat that sandwich and smile.

Conversely, this is also the opportunity for the Democrats. A Ryan-branded party is an even better target than the know-nothing Tea Party brand of Sarah Palin. Republicans (and conservatives) at all levels now can be addressed as supporting the undoing of the social safety net and the rewarding of the already very wealthy. In a fight over principles, pragmatism loses out.

And already there are already rumblings from the pros that this brand may be a disaster.

Filed under: Elections, Politics, Paul Ryan, Roy Schmidt, Ryan Lizza, Sarah Palin

Campaign Notes

[I will be enjoying life far away from the polls next week. But before then, here are some notes on various campaigns]

Quite Likely the Whitest Campaign Ever

That would be Pestka-Thomas primary. Were one to look at the visuals of their websites, their Facebook pages, or for that matter the material that comes in the mail, why one would think there were hardly minorities anywhere in the region. Sort of like Ottawa County (if you’re a Republican).

This is more than an oddity, however. In the general election, minorities will play a crucial role, the challenge being to draw the occasional voter to vote the rest of the ballot.  While the voting decision for poor and minorities is often made fairly late in the campaign, candidates cannot wait until then. Moreover, the lack of face time undercuts both candidates’ claims to being progressive.

I live in the city. I know how important Democratic values and Washington decisions are to my neighbors. I would like to see more evidence that they will get heard.

Too Conventional?

When the Pestka campaign chose the standard “Defend the Retiree” stance to push back against Thomas, one can hardly blame them. This is the common tactic for appealing to a core Democratic base; it seems like an easy win. But it is also a trap, one that will become painfully clear on Wednesday, August 8.

There is something rather old-fashioned about this, almost charming. And that’s the danger. “Old fashioned.” Something from the 80s or 90s. Against a 32-year old tyro, does it work?

If anything, this defensive approach gives the opposition two avenues of attack: old ideas (that presumably don’t work), and since most adults know that entitlements will need to be looked at — the defensive approach becomes easily portrayed as a form of “do nothing-ism.” At a time when the GOP will be running on “fiscal austerity” (albeit of the sad Paul Ryan approach), the defensive position gives them the mantle of “reformer.”  It cedes the frame to the other side. And as a matter of practical politics, coming across as a conventional Democrat is a fair way to keep moderate conservatives from voting for you. Oh, they may despise Amash, but the more Pestka sounds like one more Democrat — well the campaign begins to bleed the voters it needs.

And that would be a shame. In other forums  Pestka has demonstrated a real appreciation for the budget decisions confronting the nation. By becoming known as that sort of practical, economically informed candidate, he can successfully whittle away at the Amash support.

Schmidt throws a Hail Mary

Another flyer in the mailbox is this, from Rep. Roy Schmidt

The Catholics are his last bastion, it would seem. Running as a social conservative would have been a good stance for the general, but the drumbeat of condemnation, from the County Prosecutor, Schmidt’s own nephew, and of course the press on MLive — standing up for new life and babies, but not standing up for your friends and constituencies? That doesn’t work. So he ends up simply being a Catholic candidate instead of a social conservative one, the former being a parochial stance, the latter at least in theory, one that represents a region.

As a matter of electoral politics, one also has to ask how this plays in the context of a senatorial primary. With Hoekstra well on his way to the win, the social conservative wing of Hekman (and once Glenn) is simply too small. Here, Bing Goei’s connection to regular GOP members gives him an edge. With the Hoekstra train coming through, the one play that Schmidt did have would be casting himself as a proto-Tea Party member, but then again, that would violate his implicit appeal of the “same old Roy.”

All these troubles arise because the original plan to defect was handled tactically rather than strategically. Without consideration of how to position oneself after the switch, he ends up with surprisingly little to say. And of course, if you are going to run for office, you will have to say something.

Farm? What Farm?

Last, one of the odder pieces of politics has been the attempted return of Jim Vaughn to his county commission seat.

Vaughn takes a resolute stand for jobs and for attention to the black community, but then draws a sharp (and negative) contrast with Farmland preservation. For most Democrats, this is an odd position. It does suggest another form of older politics. In the post civil rights era, one of the compromises black politicians made was the sort that secured direct advantages for communities, but largely ceded the issues outside the neighborhood to the dominant party (i.e. the Republicans). This style of politics works both ways, for the white politician, it allows for some sense of doing good, after all one is supporting their elected representative –even conservatives want to do justice — and at the same time, it provides another vote on items of concern for the conservative wing, such as opposition to farmland preservation.

This pattern of mutual benefit can also be seen in various redistricting schemes that consolidated black voters in guaranteed districts, thus freeing up other districts for more conservative white candidates.

As I said, this is an old pattern.

What Vaughn misses is the more integrated way of both parties. For the GOP, this has been shown in greater party discipline. There is less room for the older style on the part of whites, too. It is now ideological. For the Dems, issues are also more integrated. We no longer think in terms of simply our separate boxes, not even that of union, non-union. The wiser heads have come to see that the attention to the environment is every bit as important as addressing the problems of the City. The pulling it apart, the notion that Green has no place at the (economic) table is over.

Last, Vaughn’s approach might have some traction in a more purely black district, but redistricting has tossed in a number of precincts that are less inclined to make the same economic trade-off, and certainly more inclined to value the environment.

Filed under: Democratic Party, Elections, Bing Goei, Jim Vaughn, Justin Amash, Paul Ryan, Peter Hoekstra, Randy Hekman, Roy Schmidt, Steve Pestka, Trevor Thomas